Although the US and Iran have serious disagreements, there is still a certain probability of reaching an agreement. There are two reasons:

First, neither side has “thrown the table,” and both have the willingness to continue talks.

Second, Iran has, in fact, already made concessions. Before the negotiations, Iran put forward two “preconditions (Lebanon ceasefire and the unfreezing of frozen assets),” the US agreed, and then negotiations began. The US has already backed down. This indicates that the US is more eager to reach an agreement.

Third, the main reason the talks have broken down at present is that one side wants nuclear weapons, while the other side seeks to control the Strait of Hormuz. These two points are the bottom lines for both sides. So, it is very difficult to negotiate in the short term.

As long as the denuclearization and the bottom line for navigation can be negotiated well, there is still hope that the talks will succeed—depending on how many benefits the US gives Iran in exchange for concessions.