As Bitcoin rebounds into the $70k range, market maker Enflux's analysis points out that this rise is more driven by short covering and position adjustments rather than traders' bullish sentiment. After short positions accumulated due to weekend Iran-related news and Bitcoin dropped close to $63,000, the rapid escalation of regional conflicts did not occur, leading to a short squeeze.

Institutional investors' buying continues to support the market, with Bitcoin spot ETFs recording a net inflow of approximately $1.45 billion over the past five trading days. Enflux states that cryptocurrencies tend to react more quickly than traditional assets during geopolitical shocks and analyzes that BTC is functioning as a capital exit route in uncertain times.

However, on-chain and derivatives data show that the market has not yet fully regained confidence. According to Glassnode, momentum indicators are beginning to recover, with the relative strength index rising from 36 last week to 41, but it has not yet reached the bullish threshold of 50. Spot trading volume has increased to nearly $9.6 billion, indicating a more balanced buy-sell flow, but traders in the derivatives market remain cautious.

Forecast markets reflect the same trend, with a 73% probability of Bitcoin declining and a 41% chance of falling below $60,000. In other words, the market is not pricing in a major crash scenario but is also not expecting a decisive rally. In the short term, support seems to have been established, but a cautious atmosphere still prevails among traders.