I noticed that Bitcoin is still moving this week, but the movement seems a bit tired. It reached $74,000 on Thursday but has now fallen back to $72,930. The news is that this rally isn't really solid because it happened mainly due to quick short covering, not genuine bullish conviction. I saw on the chart that the rally paused at the Fibonacci 61.8% level and the 50-day moving average, two areas where bear market bounces typically reverse before collapsing again.

The background of this entire movement is the Iran war situation, which has increased oil prices, the USD is strengthening, and Asian stocks have dropped 6.4% since the conflict began. Those are not ideal conditions for a crypto rally. ETH has risen 9.43% this week and reached $2.25K, SOL is at $84.22 with a +5.03% weekly gain, but DOGE has slightly declined, while XRP has almost stalled. The key support to watch is $70,000; if it holds, the price is okay. But if it breaks, the next level is a $64,000 floor.

The liquidation map shows concentrated shorts liquidated at $74,000 and long liquidation clusters at $70,000. So there’s a clear range for the next move. But honestly, until these macro headwinds are cleared, it’s hard to believe there’s a new bull market. It seems like the market is just squeezing in the short term.