#我的周末交易计划 This weekend, the market's "bright signs" and "hidden dangers" are both abundant; here is a detailed overview.

First, the big picture: BTC is currently trading at $72,976, up about +1% in 24 hours; ETH is at $2,245, up +2.24%. But the Fear & Greed Index is only 15 / Extreme Fear, which is a very contradictory signal—prices are rising, but sentiment is falling. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lowest levels since early 2024, indicating that a sharp fluctuation of around ±40% is building up, waiting for a trigger.
Black swan: could suddenly trigger over the weekend!
1. Iran War + Strait of Hormuz: The most concerning macro risk. The Iran-U.S. ceasefire negotiations remain fragile. If negotiations break down or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked again, global energy prices will surge, and risk assets including the crypto market will face intense selling pressure. Liquidity is extremely low over the weekend, so the plunge could be even sharper.
2. World Liberty Financial liquidation risk: A project under the Trump family used 500 billion WLFI tokens as collateral to borrow $75 million from Dolomite. Although officials deny liquidation risk, market chatter calls it "FUD," which often precedes price declines—if WLFI continues to fall, collateral devaluation could trigger a chain of liquidations.
3. Circle stock price collapse: Circle dropped -9.9% in a single day, with a nearly 24% decline over the past month. This is related to an investigation into the Drift Protocol vulnerability. When stablecoin issuers encounter issues, it often raises concerns about USDC de-pegging. Although the probability is low, it is a tail risk, and weekend news is harder to control.
Golden phoenix: might quietly take off over the weekend!
1. Hong Kong stablecoin license granted (HSBC + Standard Chartered): The Hong Kong Monetary Authority officially issued the first stablecoin licenses to Anchorpoint, led by HSBC and Standard Chartered. This is the first time traditional banking giants have obtained regulatory approval to issue stablecoins.
Positive themes: HKD stablecoin narratives, RWA, Asia-Pacific compliant DeFi protocols.
2. Bitcoin as "Hormuz toll" settlement currency: Iran plans to use BTC to collect tolls for passing through the Strait of Hormuz under a ceasefire agreement—this is not a joke, but a formal report by Cointelegraph. If negotiations go smoothly, this could be a major breakthrough for BTC's sovereign-level use case, serving as a strong positive catalyst for BTC price.
3. Japan incorporates cryptocurrencies into financial product regulation: The Japanese Cabinet passed a bill to include crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act for the first time. While this increases short-term compliance costs, in the medium to long term, it lays infrastructure for institutional entry and is expected to boost related ecosystems like ASTR and IOTA.
4. CoinbCEO promotes the CLARITY Act: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Coinbase CEO Armstrong both called for accelerating the passage of crypto market regulation bills on the same day. If there is further legislative progress over the weekend, it could be one of the most important US compliance positives of the year.
Summary:
This weekend is a highly asymmetric market—upside catalysts (sovereign-level BTC use, Hong Kong compliance, US legislation) are gradually accumulating, but the black swan risks (Iran negotiations breakdown, liquidation risks, Circle crisis) could trigger a panic sell-off during the weekend when liquidity is at its lowest.
Advice: Those with positions should watch their stop-loss levels; avoid increasing leverage during extreme fear. If you want to position, wait for the black swan to create a trap over the weekend—"Golden Phoenix" tends to fly higher after panic.