Been watching this play out for weeks now, and it's pretty fascinating how stocks are finally catching up to where bitcoin already crashed. Back in early 2026, BTC plunged from around $90K down to nearly $60K in just five weeks. Meanwhile, the stock market kept hitting new highs like nothing was wrong. Everyone was wondering if bitcoin would bounce back quickly or if equities would eventually follow. Turns out it's the latter.

Since late February when tensions with Iran spiked, Treasury yields have been climbing hard. The 10-year is now sitting at 4.41%, up nearly 50 basis points from when things kicked off. Two-year yields jumped even more. And here's the thing that matters for risk assets: when Treasuries rise, everything else gets repriced. Borrowing costs go up across the board - mortgages, corporate debt, student loans, you name it. Suddenly holding equities becomes less attractive.

This is exactly what we're seeing now. Nasdaq futures hit September lows early this week, S&P 500 e-mini futures did the same. The crypto crash that happened weeks ago is now playing out in traditional markets. It's like bitcoin was the canary in the coal mine, showing us what was coming for the broader risk asset space.

What's interesting is that traders actually watch bitcoin pretty closely for this reason. When traditional markets are closed or on weekends, BTC price action tells you a lot about where risk sentiment is heading. Bitcoin has held steady between $65K and $75K lately, currently trading around $72K with a small bounce. But the options market is screaming fear right now - put options hit record highs, meaning people are paying up for downside protection.

Bloomberg's commodity strategist Mike McGlone put it well: Bitcoin is at the top of the risk-assets iceberg. When it collapses, you're probably looking at the early stages of a broader drawdown across everything. If commodity volatility keeps spiking, it could ripple up to stocks. The crypto crash we saw two months ago might've just been the first domino.