This morning at 8:00 AM, Iran's ceasefire agreement reached its deadline, but the likelihood of an agreement remains slim.

The market has already reacted in advance—Bitcoin briefly surged past $72,000, hitting a new high in April, but then quickly retreated to around $68,500. The spike was driven by bets on a ceasefire, and the decline was because the ceasefire had not actually been implemented.

The current situation is quite clear: if war breaks out, crude oil will rise, while gold and Bitcoin will fall; if a ceasefire occurs, Bitcoin will rebound, and crude oil will pull back. Based on various statements, the probability of conflict is higher, but it’s unlikely that Trump will initiate a full-scale war—more likely a symbolic strike, otherwise future deterrence in the Middle East would be significantly undermined.

From a technical perspective, the 70,000-72,000 zone is a strong resistance area, with two failed attempts yesterday; support below is at 68,000, and a break below that could test 67,000 or even lower.

My view: short-term volatility is biased bearish unless the ceasefire news materializes, making upward breakthroughs difficult. For traders, consider light positions around the 72,000-71,000 region, watching the 700-680 range.