I just reviewed the analyses on how those critical mineral tariffs would impact precious metals, and honestly, the situation is quite complex. Research teams have been studying this for weeks, and the conclusions are interesting.

For silver, it seems there’s a high likelihood that tariffs could be completely avoided, since the U.S. relies heavily on imports. If that happens, we might see temporary pressure on prices because silver would start flowing out of the U.S. to other regions. But here’s the interesting part: there’s a 15-day window before any tariff takes effect, and during that period, the market would likely be stockpiling, which could push platinum and other metals’ prices higher before any final decision.

What catches my attention most is palladium. All signs point to it being the most affected by high tariffs, possibly close to 50%. The reason is that the U.S. could increase its own palladium production as a byproduct of nickel and platinum. If that happens, we would essentially create two separate markets: one in the U.S. with much higher prices and another in the rest of the world with lower prices. Trade flows would permanently shift.

Regarding platinum, it’s more uncertain. Although the U.S. also depends heavily on imports, there’s a possibility it could be taxed along with palladium. The interesting part is that inventories in New York remain at all-time highs, but at the same time, ETFs for these metals have been receiving a lot of new money, which exacerbates the actual physical scarcity in the market. Fund positions have turned bullish for the first time in years, so there’s quite a bit of volatility ahead.