Just noticed the USD to MXN pair is holding pretty well above 17.56 despite the solid US employment numbers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected with New Orders jumping to 58.6, and ADP showed private hiring at 63K, but Mexican Peso bulls seem to be shrugging it off. Interesting move considering how these data usually push the dollar higher.

What's catching my eye is the technical setup though. The pair is sitting right above the 20 and 50-day moving averages around 17.25-17.50, and the RSI finally broke out of oversold territory after months. There's a broken resistance trendline from early 2025 that suggests buyers might be gathering some momentum. If we clear 17.91 on the upside, next stop is 18.00.

On the Mexico side, Banxico's private analyst poll is showing they expect the USD to MXN exchange rate to hit around 18.10, down from their previous 18.50 forecast. The central bank seems ready to cut rates by 50 basis points, and Deputy Governor Borja mentioned they have room to ease given weaker consumer spending and investment. So the currency has some tailwinds from policy expectations, but traders are watching the US employment reports coming Thursday and Friday pretty closely.

Bigger picture: MXN tends to do well during risk-on periods, and we've seen some improvement in sentiment lately. But the technicals suggest consolidation is more likely around the 17.50 area until we get more directional clarity. The 17.00 level is the key support to watch if bears take control.