I just read Lyn Alden's recent insights on Bitcoin cycles, and they are definitely worth deep consideration. One core observation she made is that the four-year cycle is no longer an iron law; although cycles still exist, their predictability has greatly diminished. The underlying reason is quite straightforward—retail participation has never returned to previous levels.

This point is particularly interesting. The entry of institutional investors has indeed opened the door, but Lyn Alden pointed out that demand in this cycle is almost entirely driven by corporations and institutions, with retail enthusiasm noticeably lacking. In other words, institutional involvement hasn't ignited the market as expected. The previous bull run was relatively subdued, which also suggests that the bear market may not drag on as it did historically—an intriguing contrarian indicator.

Regarding the behavior of long-term holders, Lyn Alden highlighted a key phenomenon: a record number of Bitcoin have not moved on-chain in five years. This is no coincidence. When these strong hands are no longer "tired sellers," the market's bottom support becomes more solid. She believes this is precisely the trigger for the next cycle—Bitcoin may be forgotten and underestimated, held by the strong hands, until one day it stops declining, and the narrative shifts.

On whether Bitcoin can become a global reserve asset, Lyn Alden's stance is clear: bypassing Wall Street, politics, and governments is impossible. Bitcoin needs to integrate into the traditional financial system to reach that scale. But the current issue is that Bitcoin is still treated as a risk asset, and this perception is unlikely to change in the short term.

Interestingly, Lyn Alden mentioned that Bitcoin is competing with precious metals for investors' attention. The recent strength of precious metals has indeed diverted some funds, coupled with the hype around AI-driven markets, giving investors many options. However, Bitcoin, as a globally liquid and highly volatile store of value, still holds unique appeal—especially in high-inflation countries like Egypt.

Regarding stablecoins, Lyn Alden positions them as "checking accounts," while Bitcoin is the "savings account." She expects the market cap of stablecoins to double and then continue growing. The logic behind this is that Bitcoin is truly decentralized, cannot be frozen, and won't depreciate, whereas stablecoins are more about convenience.

On the macro level, Lyn Alden believes the economy will maintain moderate growth in the foreseeable future—moderate money supply growth combined with above-average fiscal deficits. In this environment, the real bottleneck for Bitcoin is demand, not supply.

Overall, Lyn Alden's core point is that the lack of retail demand is the key issue in the current Bitcoin cycle. Institutional entry has addressed the technical barriers, but market enthusiasm will take time to return. The stability of long-term holders, in fact, forms the foundation for the next upward move. This analysis is very helpful in understanding the true state of the current market.