Thank you for the valuable information, my friend 🫶

The Final Negotiation in the Strait of Hormuz

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, as the core of US-Iran tensions, has severely disrupted global energy flows since February 2026. Iran has effectively closed the strait or imposed strict restrictions on passage. #AprilMarketOutlook Reports indicate that each ship is charged #四月行情预测 million in transit fees (, affecting approximately 20% of global oil trade. Recent developments over the past 24-48 hours show a mix of optimistic signals and deep contradictions regarding a ceasefire and negotiations to reopen the strait. However, inconsistencies in statements from all parties suggest that any concrete agreement remains far off.

On March 31, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that U.S. military operations in Iran could end “within 2 to 3 weeks.” Trump emphasized that the security of the strait is no longer the responsibility of the United States but should be handled by “the countries using the strait,” criticizing allies $2 , especially European countries and NATO ), telling them to “go get their own oil.” The White House claimed that “serious talks” are ongoing with Iran and that “significant progress” has been made, but it is reported that Trump has had indirect contacts with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Meanwhile, Iran has made its position clear: Tehran repeatedly emphasizes that Iran has not engaged in any formal negotiations with the U.S. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced they will intercept ships attempting to pass through the strait and will respond strongly. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated they are “ready to end the war,” but only if “specific guarantees are provided to ensure the safety and interests of the Iranian people.” Pezeshkian also requested assurances against future attacks during a meeting with the European Council President. Iranian officials have stated they rejected the 15-point U.S. proposal and will not compromise on sovereignty and rights.

The latest negotiation situation can be summarized as follows:
- U.S. side: Indirect signals claiming “progress”; Trump’s latest statements suggest actions may conclude soon.
- Iran: No formal talks, only conveying “We are ready but need guarantees.”
- Third parties: Reports indicate Pakistan, China, and some European countries are mediating, but no specific progress has been publicly disclosed.
- Strait situation: Still largely closed or under strict restrictions; neither the U.S. nor Iran has taken substantial measures to fully open it.

Analysts interpret Trump’s “handing over the strait to others” as a “post-war retreat” strategy but warn that geopolitical risks will persist. Experts point out that attempts to forcibly reopen the strait ( including ground operations ) could lead to very dangerous consequences; diplomacy remains the only realistic approach. With both sides maintaining their positions, the possibility of achieving a permanent ceasefire or strait liberalization by April remains uncertain.

**This is not investment advice, market prediction, or endorsement.** Events are changing rapidly; contradictory statements and uncertainties could trigger new developments at any time. Handling geopolitical issues cautiously and distantly, conducting independent research, and paying attention to official sources are always the most accurate ways. We recommend you follow the latest updates personally.