ChainCatcher News reports that, according to Jintiao, a strategist at TD Securities stated in a report that Fed rate cuts will become "more complicated." They pointed out that a 25% increase in WTI crude oil prices would roughly correspond to a 0.5 percentage point rise in overall CPI. The strategist said that if inflation remains sticky and economic growth stays resilient, it could delay the Fed's easing steps, but the threshold for rate hikes remains high. LSEG data shows that the currency market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 41 basis points this year.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that, based on comprehensive market analysis, if tonight's December US CPI significantly falls below expectations, the anticipation of rate cuts will accelerate the rapid strengthening of gold prices; if slightly lower, gold prices will maintain a bullish pattern and fluctuate upward; if in line with expectations, the market will remain steady, with gold consolidating at high levels and waiting for the next signal; however, if inflation exceeds expectations, especially with a rebound in core inflation, rising real interest rates will suppress short-term gold prices. But if "high interest rates + sticky inflation" continue to evolve into stagflation concerns, gold may instead see stronger safe-haven buying in the medium term.

Today, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data will be officially released. The market expects the PCE and core PCE data for September to remain roughly unchanged from the previous month. The overall PCE inflation rate is expected to rise slightly to 2.8%. This data will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts and future economic forecasts, especially in the context of expiring cryptocurrency options, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets expected to experience volatility. Wall Street expects September PCE inflation to remain “sticky,” with core PCE growing 2.9% year-over-year. Market analysts believe that if this month’s data comes in below expectations, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut will increase. The Fed’s stance is especially critical; CME’s FedWatch tool shows that the market sees an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, bringing the target rate down to the 3.50%-3.75% range.

BlockBeats News, December 5 — The US will release September PCE inflation data tonight. As the Fed’s most closely watched price indicator, this result will directly impact the December interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut remains at 87%. The market expects the core PCE annual growth rate to be around 2.8%, slightly above the target but continuing a cooling trend. If the data comes in below expectations, it will strengthen the market narrative of a “soft landing” and the formation of an easing cycle. On the macro level, yesterday’s weaker ADP employment data has made the market even more sensitive to this inflation result. Meeting or coming in below expectations will put pressure on the dollar and support risk assets; if above expectations, sticky inflation may push up US Treasury yields, weaken rate-cut expectations, and trigger short-term avoidance of high-volatility assets. Overall sentiment remains cautious, with liquidity waiting for the event before repositioning. The crypto market continues its choppy trend, BTC