Peak season is not busy! Glass prices hit a new cyclical low. What is the reason?

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Source: Futures Daily

Currently, this is a critical period for a rebound in glass demand, but the market is showing a “busy season that fails to deliver,” and glass futures prices have continued to fall. On April 1, the main glass futures contract closed at 999 yuan/ton, hitting a new low in nearly 10 months. On the spot side, after the Spring Festival holiday, domestic float glass prices have been running steadily. In March, spot prices in North China were maintained around 1,060 yuan/ton, while those in Central China were maintained around 1,080 yuan/ton—sharply contrasting with the typical uptrend seen during the peak season in previous years.

Market participants believe that high inventories in the upstream and midstream, along with weak end-market demand, are the core reasons behind the decline in glass futures prices.

Sunha Jialu, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that in the first quarter, China’s domestic glass apparent demand fell 4.2% year over year. Downstream deep-processing enterprises had relatively few orders, and there was no obvious sign of additional inventory replenishment in the terminal market. Meanwhile, inventories in the midstream trading环节 have already been saturated, limiting upside room for spot prices.

Ding Cheng, another analyst at Zhuochuang Information, also said that over the past few years the glass market fundamentals have been weak, and inventories have been difficult to work off. The traditional “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” has also failed to deliver a strong peak season. This year’s “Golden Three and Silver Four” has been further dragged down by the high inventory levels at enterprises after the Spring Festival holiday and the contraction in downstream orders, leaving demand with little room to improve.

According to Sunha Jialu, the glass industry is currently characterized by a typical pattern of “weak supply and weak demand.” In the first quarter of 2026, glass supply volume decreased by about 4.7% year over year, which is basically in line with the decline in apparent demand.

Ding Cheng said that currently, the daily melting volume of float glass has dropped to below 144k tons, a historical low. Although the supply contraction is significant, demand recovery is slow and inventory drawdown momentum is weak. Most production enterprises are facing losses. While there are expectations of off-plan cold maintenance for some production lines, the weak fundamentals are unlikely to change in the short term.

Looking ahead to the glass market in April, interviewees believe that prices are unlikely to see a trend reversal.

Hu Peng, a senior analyst at Founder Zhongji Futures, said that while demand in the medium term is hard to be optimistic, there may be some improvement in the short term. As he explained, the Spring Festival holiday fell later this year, and the downstream restart pace after the holiday was slow, weighing on glass demand in March. In April, demand recovery may support prices to stabilize on a phased basis. In addition, in March, on-glass production days’ melting volume fell by nearly 5,000 tons; in the first quarter cumulative decline was nearly 8,500 tons. Current daily melting volume is approaching the supply-demand equilibrium line. If it falls to 140k tons, the market will enter an inventory drawdown phase.

Sunha Jialu also believes that demand may improve in the short term. Downstream and export orders may increase slightly, but overall they are unlikely to grow significantly. The extent of demand restoration in the second quarter and the pace of inventory drawdown will directly determine whether upstream capacity can continue to clear.

Ding Cheng said that in April, the planned adjustments for domestic glass production lines are limited. High inventories have not yet been effectively worked off, and on top of that, the release of speculative sources keeps supply pressure present.

Turning to the cost side, Ding Cheng said that affected by the conflict in the Middle East and seasonal factors, energy prices such as coal and petroleum coke are trending upward. The glass cost center of gravity in the second quarter is expected to rise, which will provide support for its prices. It is expected that in April, glass prices will be weak and range-bound.

Sunha Jialu said that in the short term, glass prices will maintain a range-bound pattern, with limited downside room. However, before demand improves and inventories are worked off, glass prices also are unlikely to show a sustained upward trend.

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