When the AI simulations at the start of the war predicted the impact of this conflict on the market, it now appears that we are officially entering the second phase.

Whether it's releasing strategic oil reserves or suspending sanctions on Russian oil, these measures cannot fundamentally prevent the long-term upward trend of oil prices. As a result, WTI crude oil prices once again broke through the $100 mark today.
As risk aversion gradually subsides, the market will begin pricing in the long-term nature of the war, and the sharp rise in oil prices will inevitably trigger inflation. Based on past experience, the Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. However, the current scale of US debt and interest payments make this process seem powerless.
Long-term high inflation could trigger stagflation. If interest rates are not raised, imported inflation will inevitably impact global manufacturing, leading to a deep recession driven by demand contraction, which in turn will impact the market. Conversely, if rates are raised, tightening liquidity will also cause market declines.
So, we also see that today major global capital markets are declining simultaneously. We wonder whether, after the large-scale deployment of US troops in the Persian Gulf and the start of ground operations, a "black swan" event might still occur.
In the short to medium term, the market is already pricing in a recession. In the long term, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the disruption of the "petrodollar" chain will weaken Middle Eastern investment in dollar assets. Meanwhile, war expenditures will continue to strain fiscal budgets, possibly forcing the Federal Reserve to shift toward fiscal monetization (MMT), further damaging the dollar’s credibility.
The speed at which US dollar hegemony might fall from its throne could be faster than we imagine. For cryptocurrencies, whether gold or BTC, it’s actually a positive development because fundamentally, both are re-pricing the credibility of the dollar. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战