"God of Oil Trading" Returns! Andurand bets on Middle East supply shocks, with flagship fund soaring 31% in Q1

“Oil Trading God” Pierre Andurand makes a heavy bet on a Middle East supply shock, goes long on oil again, and the flagship fund surges more than 30% in the first quarter, delivering a strong comeback.

On April 2, citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund rose 31.1% cumulatively in Q1. This standout performance came alongside oil prices that kept climbing, with Brent crude posting nearly a 60% gain in March. Oil prices surged due to the deep disruption to the global energy supply chain caused by conflict in the Middle East, which impeded shipping, forced some production capacity to shut down, and triggered the largest-scale supply interruption on record.

As the “oil trading god” who accurately anticipated the oil-price surge in 2008 and the crash in 2020, Pierre Andurand had long been the market’s most steadfast bull. His bullish outlook failed in 2023, ending a three-year streak of profitable results. In 2024, he exited oil-long trades and waited for the right moment. He was hit again in 2025, recording about a 40% loss. Now, he has taken a heavy position betting on a Middle East supply shock, completing a strong return.

Monthly performance diverged; the March rally set the tone for the full quarter

According to Bloomberg data, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund’s performance in Q1 showed clear divergence: down 4% in January, up 4.6% in February, and soaring 30.6% in March, with March contributing the vast majority of the quarter’s gains. The performance closely tracked oil price volatility. In mid-March, as the Middle East conflict intensified and shipping in the Persian Gulf was disrupted, supply concerns emerged, oil prices surged sharply, and the fund’s long positions benefited handsomely.

This performance is especially crucial. The fund lost 40% for the full year 2025, at one point prompting questions from the outside about its strategy. In the early days of the Middle East conflict, the fund rose 6% within a week, and the wild swings in oil prices left many hedge funds scrambling. After that, the fund successfully captured a one-way oil rally in March and validated the strategy with strong returns.

From longs to exiting: the ups and downs of Andurand’s oil trading

Pierre Andurand previously worked as an energy trader at Goldman Sachs and at Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trading company, before founding the hedge fund Andurand Capital Management, which became famous for its accurate call on the oil-price surge in 2008 and the epic crash in 2020.

As a well-known oil bull in the market, he once predicted in early 2023 that oil prices would rise to $140 per barrel by year-end. However, Brent crude never managed to break above $100. OPEC+ production cuts failed to effectively boost the market, and shorts repeatedly gained the upper hand, causing his bullish strategy to miss and leaving his performance unfavorable, ending his three-year run of profitable results.

In 2024, ahead of the June OPEC+ meeting, Andurand completely closed its long positions in oil futures, with the market outlook described as “mixed.” In a letter, the company said, “Once we have a clearer understanding of the supply side, we will re-enter the oil market.”

From the failure of predictions to turning away, from lying low to striking back. Through the ebb and flow of tides, this “hunter” in the oil market never truly left. When supply shocks returned, Andurand bet on the long side again. This time, the market stood on his side.

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