Hexun Investment Advisor Ge Hongliang: A-shares plummet, is it a good time to buy the dip?

The market took a big drop today. Can we buy the dip tomorrow? Gu Hongliang from Hexun Investment Consulting believes it may be possible to buy the dip, but don’t blindly do it—buying the dip also has methods and a path. Don’t go by instinct and gamble on luck. Listen up: real dip-buying must look at three things. The first is the international macro situation. The second is investor sentiment. The third—and most important—is the feedback from indicators on the trading chart.

So for the first, what’s the biggest issue with the international situation right now? Things outside are fighting. As long as the conflict hasn’t ended, and as long as oil hasn’t fallen, don’t rush to buy the dip.

Second, investor sentiment. What kind of sentiment do retail investors have right now? “Down so much it’s numb,” and “lying flat,” “do what you want—I’m not cutting losses.” If there’s no panic-selling, can the market bottom out?

Lastly, what key indicator on the chart should we watch? Volume. A high-level selloff with heavy volume is called panic selling and an exit. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife. During a middle stage, a downtrend with declining volume means there’s nobody taking the bids—that’s a “downtrend continuation.” The dip-buying that truly works is “low volume, low price”: the price has dropped to the bottom, and at the same time there’s no trading volume left—this is called exhaustion of sell orders. That’s when you can add in batches.

If the next move also brings you a breakout with heavy volume into a big bullish candle, that means the main forces are accumulating. At that time, you must follow the pace. Given the current market, it’s likely to form a double-bottom structure. So if you really want to buy the dip, we wait for the “right foot” to come down, and then you can check whether the three points I just mentioned have been met. Before that, all bargain-hunting is only to gamble on a short-term rebound—so you can only close out.

(责任编辑：王刚 HF004)

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