[Pre-market in U.S. stocks] Trump's speech raises market concerns, Dow futures down 483 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.7%; Brent crude rebounds 6%, gold drops over 3% (updating continuously)

U.S. President Trump said he would carry out an “extremely severe” crackdown on Iran. Expectations for a short-term ceasefire in the Middle East fell through. U.S. stock index futures fell before the market opened on Thursday. Dow Jones futures were down 483 points, at 46,323. S&P 500 futures were down 78 points, at 6,539. Nasdaq futures were down 375 points, or 1.5%, at 23,818. After Trump’s remarks, oil prices surged. New York crude futures rose 8%, to $107.86. Brent crude futures rose 7%, to $108.21. Gold prices fell by nearly 3%. New York gold futures were at $4,655, and spot gold was at $4,630.

As concerns about the conflict continued to build, the U.S. dollar index jumped 0.6% to 100.17. U.S. long-term bond yields rose. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.367%.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

Intraday market:

【14:00】Dow Jones futures fell 555 points to 46,251. S&P 500 futures fell 91 points to 6,526. Nasdaq futures fell 413 points, or 1.7%, to 23,781.

【14:00】Oil prices surged. New York crude futures rose 5.1% to $105.24. Brent crude futures rose 6% to $107.23. Gold prices fell by more than 3%. New York gold futures were at $4,659. Spot gold was at $4,605.

【11:53】【Artemis II】After half a century, it’s back to the moon—NASA’s Artemis 2 crewed rocket launches

【11:30】【Gold price movement】After Trump’s remarks, spot gold prices turned down 1%. “Basically describing the conflict as a military victory, not a ceasefire statement”

【11:11】【U.S. stock analysis】After Trump’s remarks, Dow Jones futures fell 400 points. Analysis: Hopes for a near-term ceasefire may cool; insufficient momentum for a mid-term rebound in U.S. stocks

【10:28】【Japanese yen movement】The yen is up to 4.91 versus the Hong Kong dollar. UBS warned: If oil supply remains obstructed, oil prices will be pushed higher; the yen versus the U.S. dollar may fall to 175 by year-end

【09:56】【Iran crisis】Trump’s remarks: Achieved an overwhelming victory; the war is about to end. Vowed to strike them “extremely severely,” sending them back to the Stone Age

【08:06】【AI】OpenAI “Wuxinfeng”? Billions of dollars’ worth of OpenAI shares see no buyers in the secondary market—$2 billion in cash waiting to be deployed by rival Anthropic

【06:57】【New share IPO】SpaceX secretly filed an IPO application, valuing it at $1.75 trillion

【06:34】【Iran crisis】Before Trump’s speech: An open letter from the Iranian president questioned whether the war is in the interest of the American people (ongoing updates)

**$1 and below are April 1 U.S. stock market conditions ====

Wednesday: Trump said Iran requested a ceasefire. Iran called it fake news. Dow rose 224 points. Oil futures fell**

In a post on the social platform Truth Social, Trump wrote, “The new president of Iran’s regime is one notch less radical than his predecessors, and he’s much smarter. He just made a request to the United States for a ceasefire! We will consider this proposal, but the precondition is that the Hormuz Strait must remain open, free, and accessible. Until then, we will continue bombing Iran to destruction, or, as people say, bomb them back to the Stone Age!!!” An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said the statement Trump made about “the new president of Iran’s regime requesting a ceasefire” is purely fabricated fake news.

See U.S. stock close right now:

					▼Click the image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

Track all markets on TradingView

On Wednesday, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian issued an open letter to the American people, saying that the Iranian people have no hostility toward other countries, including people in the Americas, Europe, or neighboring countries. He said the United States has amassed large military bases and military power around Iran, creating a military threat to Iran. Iran’s response—which has taken place and will continue—is based on legitimate self-defense and is restrained. It is absolutely not about starting a war or invading.

Citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s state news agency IRIB reported that the Hormuz Strait will not be opened to the enemy because of “the absurd actions of the U.S. president.”

With hopes in the market that the Middle East war could end, the Dow’s gain at one point widened to 461 points. At the close, it rose 224 points to 46,565. The S&P 500 jumped 0.72%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.16%.

Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion to private equity firm Apollo, and will buy back half of its stake in an Irish chip plant. The stock price rose 8.8%. Micron (Micron) rose 8.9%.

New York crude futures slumped 4.8% at one point, falling to a low of $96.5, and closed at $100.12, still down 1.24%. Brent crude futures fell 2.7% to close at $101.16. The market continued to watch the contents of Trump’s speech about the Iran war delivered late on Wednesday U.S. time.

Spot gold prices rose for four straight sessions, climbing as much as 2.69% to $4,792.96.

U.S. March employment data—commonly called ADP but excluding government employment—rose by 62,000, above the expected 40,000. In education, health care, and construction, jobs increased by 58,000 and 30,000 respectively. In the trade, transportation, and manufacturing sectors, jobs fell by 58,000 and 11,000 respectively.

When Nela Richardson, chief economist of ADP, was interviewed by foreign media, she said, “We’ve now seen two consecutive months of fairly solid job growth, but a large part of it is coming from the healthcare industry. That’s the real focus. Healthcare is changing the labor market.”

In other areas, information services added 16,000 positions. Natural resources and mining contributed 11,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality added 7,000 positions.

Companies with fewer than 50 employees dominate hiring, adding 85,000 positions. Meanwhile, mid-sized companies lost 20,000 positions, and large companies with more than 500 employees decreased by 4,000.

This is the second consecutive month that small businesses lead the growth. Richardson said this shift could be the industry “catching up fast,” while it is also affected by inflation and “the second or third job people need to cope with the current price levels may be coming from the small business segment.”

Wage growth for employees who stayed in their original roles held steady at 4.5%, while “job-changers” saw wage growth of 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from February.

Trump will deliver a speech at 9:00 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday (9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time on Thursday) to brief the latest situation of the Iran war.

Although war developments brought some optimism, the head of the International Energy Agency said that due to the Middle East crisis, so far daily oil supply losses have exceeded 12 million barrels. This crisis is more severe than the two oil crises in the 1970s and the combined interruptions of Russian natural gas supply in 2022. The IEA expects April’s oil losses to be double March’s. The biggest current issue is shortages in aviation fuel and diesel, which have already affected Asia and will affect Europe in April through May.

The International Energy Agency said it is considering releasing additional strategic reserves. “If we believe crude oil or refined products are in demand, we may intervene.” About 40 key energy assets in the Middle East region have been damaged.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

Intraday market:

【21:30】Dow Jones opened higher by 338 points to 46,680. Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 21,769. S&P 500 rose 42 points to 6,572.

【18:48】Dow Jones futures rose 291 points, Nasdaq futures rose 0.9%, and S&P 500 futures rose 43 points.

【14:30】Dow Jones futures rose 210 points to 46,792. S&P 500 futures rose 35 points to 6,606. Nasdaq futures rose 194 points, or 0.8%, to 24,109.

【14:30】Oil prices eased. New York crude futures fell 0.8% to $100.59. Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $102.28. Gold prices continued to rebound. New York gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,721, while spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,703.

【14:30】【Gold price analysis】Gold prices briefly reclaimed the $4,700 level. Analysis: Elevated bond yields limit the upside of gold’s rebound. Is the January high a “once-in-a-lifetime” historical high?

【13:17】【U.S. stock analysis】Optimism for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparks a sharp rebound of more than 1,000 points in the Dow. Analysis: As long as the oil price and bond-yield indicators keep trending downward, it reflects the market’s longer-term belief that a ceasefire is more likely

【10:37】【AI startup】Anthropic due to human error leaks internal source code of its coding assistant Claude Code—512,000 lines of code go viral

【10:23】【AI+layoffs】Oracle shares rise nearly 6%. Reportedly launching global layoffs; thousands of employees are expected to be affected

【10:05】【Gold price movement】Gold prices continue up; spot gold briefly breaks above the $4,700 level—hopes that the Iran war may end

【09:00】【New share IPO】SpaceX reportedly working with at least 21 banks to prepare for a listing under the code name “Project Apex”

【08:32】【NKE earnings】Nike shares fall 9% after hours. Forecasts say China market sales will decline 20%

【08:11】【“Oracle of Omaha” Buffett】Buffett warns the banking system shows signs of fragility. Market panic may lead investors to exit—“Even if you rush out to the door first, it’s still beneficial.”

【07:34】【AI+investment】OpenAI adds $12 billion to this funding round; post-investment valuation rises to $85.2 billion

【07:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: We have achieved the goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons. It’s not necessary to reach an agreement to withdraw; we can leave in two or three weeks (ongoing updates)

**$1 and below are March 31 U.S. stock market conditions ====

Tuesday: Iran’s president said he is willing to end the war if no further attacks occur. Dow surged 1,125 points, Nasdaq rose 3.8%, and oil prices fell**

Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war as long as it is ensured that it will not be attacked again. U.S. President Trump, according to reports, also signaled a desire for a ceasefire, intending to end military operations against Iran before the Hormuz Strait is reopened. The market anticipated that both sides would deploy to implement a ceasefire. U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday. The Dow’s gain at one point expanded to 1,167 points; however, oil prices fell.

At the close, the Dow rose 1,125 points to 46,341. The S&P 500 rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%.

See U.S. stock close right now:

					▼Click the image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

Focus stocks: Large technology stocks continued to rebound. Nvidia (U.S.: NVDA) rose 5.6%, and Tesla rose 4.6%. Meta (U.S.: META) closed up 6.7%, announcing a $2 billion investment in Marvell, a chip manufacturer, boosting Marvell by 12.8%.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement saying it would target companies and institutions related to 18 U.S. high-tech and artificial intelligence companies in the Middle East region.

U.S. President Trump posted on the social website Truth Social, saying that “countries unable to obtain aviation fuel because of the Hormuz Strait—such as the United Kingdom, which refused to participate in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation’—I have a suggestion for you: First, buy from the United States—we have plenty of oil; Second, muster your courage and go to the Hormuz Strait to seize it. You have to start learning self-reliance. The United States will no longer help you as it did before—just as you didn’t help us back then.”

He said, “Iran has basically been destroyed. The hardest part is over.” He urged those “spectators” to get oil themselves.

Foreign media reported that Trump told aides that even if the Hormuz Strait is basically shut, he is still willing to end the U.S. military operations against Iran, raising market expectations that this conflict lasting a month could end.

At the New York close, crude oil fell 1.46% to $101.38. Spot gold prices had risen as much as 3.9%, hitting a high of $4,686.9.

The U.S. dollar index was slightly weak at 99.88 for now. Fed Chair Powell indicated that the need for rate hikes in the near term may not be necessary. U.S. long-term bond yields continued to fall steadily. The yield on the 10-year long Treasury was temporarily at 4.321%.

Russian ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov said in an interview with Russian media on Tuesday that Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran and is not in Russia receiving treatment as some rumors claim.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

Intraday market:

【20:55】Trump: Countries that didn’t help the U.S. will have to learn how to get oil themselves in the future. Dow Jones futures rose 509 points, Nasdaq futures rose 0.8%. Spot gold rose 1%

【18:00】Dow Jones futures rose 407 points, Nasdaq futures rose 0.8%. Spot gold rose 1%

【15:00】Dow Jones futures rose 321 points to 45,786. S&P 500 futures rose 39 points to 6,427. Nasdaq futures rose 132 points, or 0.6%, to 23,272.

【15:00】Oil prices held steady. New York crude futures rose 0.1% to $102.97. Brent crude futures rose 0.7% to $107.48. Gold prices continued to rise. New York gold futures rose 0.7% to $4,590. Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,558.

【14:06】【U.S. stock analysis】Powell indicates no rate hikes in the near term. U.S. stocks rise first then pull back. Analysis: Rate-hike odds have been overestimated. If fighting cools off in the short term, the S&P 500 could return to 7,000 points

【12:08】【New share IPO】Nasdaq rolls out “fast-track listing” rules, paving the way for unicorns like SpaceX to quickly move up to the Nasdaq 100 index

【10:48】【Gold price movement】Gold prices continue rising by more than 1%. Powell eases rate-hike expectations + Trump, reportedly, is willing to end the war without reopening the Hormuz Strait

【08:03】【U.S. interest rates】Powell says long-term inflation expectations remain under control, emphasizing monetary policy is in a good position

**$1 and below are March 30 U.S. stock market conditions ====

Monday: Iran’s parliament approved charging fees in the Hormuz Strait. NY oil stays above 100. Nasdaq turns down 0.7%. Dow rises 49 points, at one point up 459 points**

Iranian Islamic parliament approved a bill on Monday to levy tolls on ships transiting the Hormuz Strait. Oil tankers could be charged fees of as much as $2 million.

U.S. President Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran made major progress, but warned that if the Hormuz Strait does not restore passage, the U.S. might attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. NY oil moved up above the 100 level, and the Nasdaq turned lower.

See U.S. stock close right now:

					▼Click the image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

The U.S. stocks saw mixed developments on Monday. After opening higher, the Dow’s gain expanded to as much as 459 points, then briefly fell 109 points. It ultimately closed up 49 points at 45,216. The S&P 500 gave back 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.73%.

New York crude oil rose 3.25% to $102.88, closing just above the $100 level. Brent May crude oil closed up 0.18% at $112.78.

Activist investor Bill Ackman said the two major mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, had declined over the top, driving shares up 51% and 47% respectively. U.S. aluminum shares were up 8.2%.

During a public speech on Monday (the 30th), Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s response to the Iran war depends largely on how the conflict affects the U.S. public’s inflation expectations. He noted that people often overlook any form of supply shock. The key, however, is to closely watch inflation expectations. The Fed faces risks in its dual mandate, including maintaining price stability and achieving full employment. At present, the Fed’s monetary policy is suitable to maintain a wait-and-see stance, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will achieve its 2% inflation target.

He also mentioned that it is well known that implementing monetary policy has long and unstable lags. Therefore, by the time the effects of tightening monetary policy show up, the oil price shock may have already passed, and the remarks or implications suggest that rate hikes may not necessarily occur in the near term.

On Monday, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying the U.S. is having serious discussions with a brand-new, more rational Iranian regime to end military actions in Iran. He also said the talks have achieved significant progress, but if for any reason an agreement cannot be reached soon, and if the Hormuz Strait cannot be immediately opened for commercial navigation, the U.S. will bomb and completely destroy all Iranian power plants, oil wells, and Halk Island, including all desalination plants.

He further emphasized that the U.S. has deliberately avoided touching the above facilities, saying the action is retaliation for Iran’s “terror rule” lasting 47 years under the previous regime, during which it slaughtered and killed many U.S. soldiers and others.

But the chairman of Iran’s National Development Fund Executive Committee subsequently rebutted, saying Iran’s power plants are distributed and numerous, reducing the likelihood of a complete nationwide blackout. He said that if Iran’s power generation facilities are targeted, Iran would bring an outage to the entire region, and added that Iran’s armed forces have the ability to do so.

Gazanfari also said that countries that support U.S. and Israel actions will eventually have to pay a price for it, which may be reflected in damage to their own homeland or in compensations for losses to Iran in the future.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, in an interview with foreign media, said the global oil market has sufficient supply and more and more ships are passing through the Hormuz Strait. As time goes on, the U.S. will regain control of the Hormuz Strait, and the Hormuz Strait will realize freedom of navigation—whether through U.S. escort or multi-country escort.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that although tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran remain, Trump still tends to resolve the Iran issue through diplomatic channels. He pointed out that the U.S. and Iran are still communicating indirectly through intermediaries, showing that despite the conflict, diplomatic channels remain open.

He also accused Iran’s leadership of using national resources to support regional armed groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shiite militias, while also threatening neighboring countries. At the same time, he welcomed a change in the political ideology of Iran’s leadership and said the U.S. will “seize” any opportunity that could lead Iran to change its political direction.

There are signs that the Middle East situation is escalating. Oil prices continue to move higher. Brent May crude futures rose by more than 2% again, to $115.08 per barrel. June futures also rose to $107.71. NY crude oil broke above the $100 level, to $101.81 per barrel, up 2.2%. The slide in gold prices was contained; it was up 0.8% temporarily, at $4,531.24 per ounce.

U.S. stocks rebounded at the open on Monday: the Dow rose 320 points to 45,487. The S&P 500 rose 23 points to 6,392. The Nasdaq rose 31 points, or 0.2%, to 20,980. The U.S. will release this week’s data including March ADP employment changes, the March ISM manufacturing index, March unemployment data, and nonfarm employment data.

President Trump claimed that Iran has “agreed” to most of the 15 demands submitted by the U.S. to Tehran to end the war, although it is still unclear whether both sides are truly negotiating.

Trump said, “They agreed to most of what we asked for. How could they not?” He also said, “We will also present some other demands.” However, he refused to disclose what specific concessions Iran has made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

					▼Click the image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+2

Intraday market:

【23:10】Powell says monetary policy has a lag effect and hints that rate hikes may not be needed in the near term. Oil jumps 2%. Dow rises 320 points

【21:30】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait is not reopened, the U.S. will bomb all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells. Oil jumps 2%. Dow rises 396 points

【19:55】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait is not reopened, the U.S. will bomb all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells again, and oil jumps another 2%. Dow Jones futures rise 244 points

【18:15】Dow Jones futures rose 153 points, Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%. Focus this week on Middle East developments plus nonfarm data

【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms death of the Revolutionary Guard Navy commander—denies any direct negotiations (ongoing updates)

【13:26】Dow Jones futures rose 13 points to 45,437. S&P 500 futures rose 6 points to 6,418. Nasdaq futures rose 22 points, or nearly 0.1%, to 23,351.

【13:26】NY crude oil futures rose 1.3% to $100.98. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.3% to $115.17. For gold, it steadied; NY gold futures rose 0.2% to $4,534, while spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,512.

【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: Lock on to the 2% inflation target; it’s still too early to talk about rate hikes now. Warns of systemic risks in the U.S. financial system

【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and take over Halk Island, an export hub

【10:21】【Japanese yen movement】Jun Muramura warns of taking “bold action”—4.9 yen per Hong Kong dollar

【09:30】【Oil price movement】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, but the pain level is only half of the peak during the 2007 crisis

【09:17】【Gold price movement】Gold prices posted their first weekly gain since the outbreak of the Middle East war, but this week gold prices are down again

【08:33】【Iran crisis】Iran war escalates and oil prices rise. Japan and South Korea stock markets also experience “Black Monday”

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil rises another 2%. Pakistan: Plans to hold U.S.-Iran talks in the coming days; Iran will allow 20 ships to pass through the strait; Trump is considering deploying ground forces (ongoing updates)

【07:30】U.S. President Trump said he will extend the bombing of Iran’s power plants by another 10 days. This has not eased market concerns; instead, concerns are rising that prolonging the war could affect oil supply, intensifying the global economic impact. U.S. stocks fell last Friday. At the close, the Dow was at 45,166, down 793 points. The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.

See U.S. stock close right now:

					▼Click the image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

Last week’s U.S. stock performance is as follows—see：【U.S. stock close】Iran says nuclear facilities were hit; war risk expanding; Dow plunges 793 points; oil prices rise; U.S. dollar index breaks above/below 100

		Finance Hot Talk
	





	China’s auto sales rank #1 in the world for the first time—will high oil prices help electric vehicles expand overseas?