Report: OPEC+ Sunday meeting may increase production to counter extreme fluctuations in the Strait of Hormuz

Against the backdrop of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran triggering the largest oil supply disruption in history and oil prices spiking to nearly $120 per barrel, OPEC+ is considering sending a signal to the market with a symbolic increase in production: once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the oil-producing countries are ready to ramp up volumes at any time.

According to Reuters, citing two OPEC+ insiders, the group’s eight core member countries are scheduled to hold a meeting on Sunday, at which they may discuss further raising oil production quota allocations. The sources said the move would have limited real-world impact on actual supply and is more of a performative gesture—laying groundwork in advance for potential relief of export restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. One insider said bluntly, “We at least need to respond on paper.” Another insider emphasized, “The market needs every barrel of oil that can be produced right now.”

Oil prices have been swinging sharply this week, reflecting the market’s high sensitivity to how the conflict may unfold. On Wednesday, oil prices briefly fell toward $100 per barrel after Trump said the U.S. would “soon” end its war with Iran; but on Thursday, they rebounded violently after Trump later backtracked, saying it would continue its strikes against Iran.

The largest-ever supply disruption in history, with oil prices nearing a four-year high

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran has caused the largest oil supply disruption on record.

The Strait of Hormuz is currently effectively closed, and the waterway accounts for more than 20% of global oil transit traffic. As a result, major OPEC oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have been forced to cut production, and Brent crude prices have surged to a four-year high of nearly $120 per barrel. Meanwhile, Russia’s oil production has also been disrupted by drone attacks, further exacerbating supply tightness.

The last OPEC+ meeting was held on March 1, when the group agreed to increase production modestly by 206,000 barrels per day in April, after having kept output unchanged in the first quarter due to concerns about an oversupply—precisely the timing when the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began to disrupt Middle East members’ oil exports.

The significance of the production-increase signal outweighs its substance; pausing the increase is also on the table

Sources said the Sunday meeting is typically used to determine May production quota allocations. Although there are currently no signs that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, any production-increase plan OPEC+ might approve would have almost no immediate effect on actual supply. Its core intent is to send a signal to the market: once tankers can resume passage through the strait, the oil-producing countries will quickly follow through by ramping up volumes.

Notably, both sources said that formal consultations among member countries have not started, and they both declined to be named. A third source suggested that, given the real-world constraints on exports, pausing monthly production increases is also one of the possible options. Neither OPEC nor officials in Saudi Arabia and Russia offered comment.

Alternative export routes are approaching saturation, limiting production-increase flexibility

Among the eight core member countries, Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are not affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, but their room to raise output is also limited.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE both have alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but they are already close to full capacity. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports through the Yanbu port along the Red Sea have surged to about 4.6 million barrels per day, nearing the pipeline capacity limit. The UAE continues to export from Fujairah port, located outside the strait. According to Kpler data, Fujairah’s March exports of crude oil and condensate rose from 1.17 million barrels per day in February to 1.61 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly half of the UAE’s total pre-war exports.

Over a longer horizon, these eight OPEC+ member countries had collectively increased their production quota allocations by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025—around 3% of global demand—before pausing the production increases from January to March 2026.

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